Herman Cain, in better times, at the top of his game--
CRUSHING David Gregory on Meet the Press.
Well, it's been an exciting and sad five weeks. I've been spending a lot of time over at the AceofSpades site, defending my man, Herman Cain, but in the end a subtle but important character flaw caught up with him. Here are a few posts I made, on 11/14, 11/17, and 11/28 at AoS, and another on TheOtherMcCain on 12/3, that illustrate what I think caused his campaign to fail:
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[1]
As a Cain supporter since May, this is disappointing to see. I knew the new guy was rough, but over six months, you need to smooth over those rough edges. But it seems he isn't doing it. It's like a great athlete coming to a sport late, you make allowances for him to work his athleticism into the sport, but at some point he either gets it or he doesn't. Michael Jordan ultimately never made it in baseball, did he?
After 29 years of being the 2d biggest Newt fan on earth (2d only to Newt himself), I gave up on the guy back in May due to his Ryan backstab. But is Cain now stabbing Gov. Walker? Uggghhhh.
Cain's campaign actually was a textbook unorthodox campaign, but they needed to develop/grow once they actually made it into the top tier (which was a huge and amazing accomplishment for them). It seems that the limiting factor on their development since then (mid-Sept.) has been...THE CANDIDATE HIMSELF, unfortunately.
And I really question Newt, too. Does he have any ground game? Does he inspire any loyalty from any person other than his [current] wife? Can he avoid torching himself just as he gains traction now? I just don't know. Ugggghhhhh.
One thing I'd strongly urge everyone. Support or oppose the candidates based on your own priorities--NOT based on what you imagine the lamestream media morons and the "independents" will do or not do. That is a fool's game, just ask the McLame supporters from 2008. The most "out of the mainstream" candidate we've ever run ended up patenting the over-the-aisle recruiting--remember those "Reagan Democrats?!" And first 44, then 49 states.
Actually, I've never been a bitter-clinger for Herman Cain. If he's way down, and a more conservative candidate has a shot, I'd of course support the other conservative vs. Romney. It's kind of a fancy formula: The Other Conservative must be at least 5 points above Cain, and within at least 5 points of Romney (or above him). Then I'll vote strategically. Of course.
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[2]
Herman Cain has confirmed a suspicion I've had since the sex allegations broke.
It's good to be confident. It's bad to be over-confident or...proud?
At the time of those sex allegations, the guy immediately charged out and answered the questions without any preparation. There is something admirable about this (esp. if you think he was innocent), but there was also something very questionable: even the smartest, most innocent, well-informed person can be confused by hostile and unfair questions, and therefore look...BAD. As he did, early that week.
He was TOO confident in his own abilities, and too naive that his own innocence wd speak for itself. That is a dangerous fault. I don't want to call it arrogance or pride, but maybe...overweening cockiness?
Anyway, that tendency was on even more gruesome display in the Milwaukee interview. He either needed to be prepared (incl. some rest) or DON'T DO THE EFFING INTERVIEW. This is NOT rocket science, in politics, business, sports, court, or any other field. Period.
He's been campaigning seriously for 6+ months. He's needed to improve his command of the issues over that time--but he has not, at least so's it's noticeable.
When you're a newcomer, you DO need to prove yourself vs. the establishment. He's had a golden opportunity the past 6 weeks, with the spotlight on him--but he has failed that test. You just can't repeatedly flub basic questions with dare I say stuttering answers, period. If we need to absorb so many gaffes, we might as well go with someone with executive experience and history fighting liberals while in office.
Short of repeated performances that rival Newt Gingrich in knowledge, then I don't see any reason for him to continue. And I don't see that happening.
It's a real shame, because he has many gifts, and such a beautiful family, but we can't duck reality. Oh, and I never doubted his commitment to conservative principles, even if he might have never written a NRO essay about them. And SURELY there's an easier, less humiliating way to sell a few books, right? Do you people seriously think THAT'S why he's gone thru this? A millionaire 65-year-old cancer survivor? To sell some books?
No, he WANTED to be President. He thought he had the tools. He actually ran an amazingly successful campaign, and got "to be a position to win," as the late great Jim Valvano put it. But in the end, it was the candidate himself, and his over-confidence, that were the limiting factors. It hurts like hell to admit it, but I have to, after being as fair and patient with Herman Cain as I'd be with any candidate that ran as a conservative.
He cd make a great Sec of Commerce, tho!
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[3]
The Milwaukee interview was the last straw for this Cainiac. All along (since May for me), I just wanted the guy to get a real shot at making his case, he actually had his shot, but he just hasn't developed as a new guy needs to develop. "Weighed in the balance and found wanting."
Since then, I'm split about 40/30/30, Perry/Newt/Bachmann. It just depends who's in the best position to beat Romney when the FL primary comes along.
But all along I presumed Cain was a decent man and husband. This latest claim shd be easy to prove, if it is true. 13 years without a photo/video or receipt is not possible. If it turns out to be just another Demo-smear, where will HC got to get his reputation back? (And will AoS apologize? /sarc off.)
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[4]
I fear Herman Cain has a problematic lack of humility. It may be arrogance. He has never recognized his shortcomings as a candidate, and therefore refused to address them or minimize them. He is confident, and that is a great and necessary quality for success, but it is hard to avoid the conclusion that he has fallen prey to OVER-confidence, or a higher regard for his own abilities than was warranted.
There were two ways to handle this, each acceptable: one was to carefully control his exposure in public venues and interviews so as to minimize his opportunities for "gaffes," the other was to get him some steady but intensive issues-tutoring so he cd turn weakness into strength:"OMG, that was a fantastic answer to an obscure question, this guy is awesome!" (BTW, Ron Reagan was a sharp and knowledgeable guy, but even his campaign recognized his tendency to shoot from the lip, and always kept careful control over his exposure.)
But, my friends, he has done neither. And it has HURT him, and after ~7 months of hard campaigning, it doesn't look like he will EVER get that he needs (needed) to do this.
The single thread running through all his blowups the past month or so has been his refusal to recognize his own weaknesses or vulnerabilities at the moment, and prudently either address them or minimize them. I sense that, at the end of the day, his (rather noble) instinct is: "Hey, just give me the ball again, fellas, I'm gonna pull this game out of the fire yet again." But when the other side has stolen your playbook and knows exactly what you're gonna do, that just is NOT the best way to win.
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FINALLY, AN AFTERTHOUGHT:
It is an interesting reflection on the media stereotype of Republicans that, in the 2 weeks following serial allegations of sexual harassment by this black man against white women, that he enjoyed the best fund raising of his campaign. Those waaaascawy, wacist, Wepubwicans...
Oh, and one tiny, little bizarre tipoff that Herman Cain was not the man for this job. Remember the little one-on-one non-debate he had with Newt on November 5? Someone asked him what was his biggest surprise as a candidate. Cain responded: "The nit-pickiness of the news media!" Huh? Did he really expect them to be fair and reasonable to a conservative, esp. a black conservative?! At least Newt knows in his bones that the Enemy Media is, well...OUR ENEMY. Man, was THAT ever a study in naivete'.